Yep, this scenario has me a little worried about STX.....
- Gina does a deal with her mate to buy the MIN gas fields. MIN keeps lucrative servicing rights....all happy...
- Gina funds to 250Pj plant that MIN's being mucking around with, but can't afford. Gina can.
- Gina and Chris use lots of 'domestic' gas on their own projects and export 20%. Pretty effective cheap gas to them and reasonable margins on the balance.
- Gina doesn't need 2 x gas plants, so WE goes on backburner. STX can do nothing about it. Possibly jump into a tolling arrangement through their plant.
- Gina won't need STX or the JV, so she lets STX wither on the vine until the price is right. No one else approaches STX for their WE exposure, because no one wants to take on Gina. Stranded asset....
- Gina eventually consolidates the PB and becomes a major player, so she'll need a management team. Possibly STX's?
IF...this happens, maybe selling the JV and cashing up, as has been mentioned a few times before, might be the only option. Certainly slow down the sp recovery and possibly make things less attractive for TO as Walyering is small and short-term, SE is small and the rest are unproven.
I hope this is not the way it plays out as it'll mean we have a long road ahead, but it seems feasible to me. Possibly the best thing to come out of MIN's sale process is we'll get a better feel for market price.
Interesting times ahead, and I feel OH is taking on MUCH more significance for STX success. Bring it on ASAP....
(20min delay)