Ann: Erregulla Deep-1 Flowtest Commences, page-99

If we as investor don't constantly ask that question of ourselves (are we missing something? What are we missing? Etc), then chances are that we aren't very good investors. All we can do is to be as thorough as we can, apply the appropriate but fair level of risk discounts, create some safety buffer, and perform as much due diligence on our valuation. If our modelling tells us the market is wrong, then we can either back ourselves... or we don't.

I am comfortable with increasing my position as the price/valuation gap widens, but it doesn't mean I don't think I can be wrong and I end up being the idiot in the room. All I can do is try to mitigate that risk as much as I can by double checking my modelling and the underlying assumptions, and the price/valuation gap does provide me with a decent margin of error as I just don't think I can be wrong in the order of >50%.... and even if I am wrong by a margin of 50% and the fair value is only 27.5c (and not 55c), I am still going to make 40% on my purchase eventually.

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