I could easily be wrong, but at the low $0.50's prices it could...

I could easily be wrong, but at the low $0.50's prices it could just be individuals and companies experienced in taking positions in takeover play's.

If for example you assumed the following probability table, the weighted average of these is 58c

• 20% the takeover gets voted down and the share price retreats to $0.40
• 40% the takeover goes through without change at the $0.50
• 20% the takeover goes through at a small additional premium of $0.60
• 10% the takeover goes through at a useful additional premium of $0.80
• 10% a competitive takeover bidding situation results in a $1 (or higher price)

I don't really have a good feel for what the probabilities should be, but those specialising in takeover plays would have probability tables around the frequency of higher bids and the size of the increase that occurs in different situations. Anyway if the above percentages and prices were correct, the expected a weighted average price is $0.58 and allowing for delays its by July 2023. If the fund was looking for a 10% return they could buy at prices up to $0.55 (and if their target return was 20% and had the same probability table above, they could be a buyer up to $0.53). Clearly they would have different price points and different probabilities, but could easily determine 51 or 52c was an still acceptable entry position, despite being above 50c.

DYOR and this isn't financial advice