Ann: Essential and TLEA to enter into Scheme of Arrangement, page-50

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qwert0

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19/01/23

12:49

Post #: 65772537
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Originally posted by WhatsTheTip: ↑

Yep because you won't know that another/higher offer isn't coming till it doesn't occur and that's how probabilities work.

There will be a heap of shareholders thinking that $0.50 is a cheap bid and it should be higher/will go higher. These shareholders are not going to be selling at $0.51. They expect a higher bid will emerge and why sell for $0.51 if you think a $0.60 or higher bid will emerge. They may be right, they may be wrong, at the moment we don't know.

If a higher bid doesn't emerge, upside options have disappeared and the share price will most likely settle slightly below $0.50. A number of shareholders thinking $0.50 is a cheap bid will vote no, but unless enough vote this way, the takeover could still be successful. Both the shareholders that vote yes and the shareholders who vote no would get $0.50 if the scheme of arrangement is approved.

From Yahoo finance, there were 13.7m shares traded across the 17th and 18th so only about 5% of shares on issue have traded at $0.50 or above since the takeover. Most shareholders are sitting and waiting to see what happens. Some sold at under $0.50 and moved their money elseware.

If everyone thought a $0.60 or higher bid was coming, the share price would be a lot closer to $0.60 than it is currently.

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I see your point. I guess there are some people currently holding who may be tempted to vote YES when the time comes, especially if the market price drops below 50c between now and the voting deadline. Hard to imagine that 75% of holders would act in that manner though.

ESS Price at posting: 51.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Essential and TLEA to enter into Scheme of Arrangement, page-50

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