There will be a bunch of orders, not necessarily canceled duringthis current quarter but at the very least will have delivery (and in-turn revenue) delayed to thefirst quarter of CY21 IMHO.
This has been flagged multiple times in recent announcements andupdates and I really hope this message has resonated and shareholders revenue expectationsfor the current QTR are in line with this??
From Sept 2020 Quarterly:
“We’ve made no secret of the fact that during this quarter we wereapproaching a stock-low position for the consumer business, with retail stocksof LIFX lights running low or in some cases, sold-out”
Noting a combination of reasons including: “theterms-related limitations on manufacturing.”
Going on to state: “we are finding that our supply constraints arenow beginning to improve and mid-October should prove itself tobe the “stock-low” period of the year.”
We need to consider that there is a significant lag (I think insome cases up to 5x months. Happy to be corrected) between orders and revenue,and as per the last quarterly supply constraints were only “beginning toimprove” in Sept/ Oct. What this says to me is that some orders had to havebeen either turned away or delayed into CY21 as these orders would need to havebeen place in Julyish to reflect revenue by Dec 31st. I can’t see howthey could have filled all these orders with significant supply issues going on duringthis order period?
I think that if you were to peel away the years of negativesentiment, consider what a year it has been for all businesses dealing with COVID-19and temper shareholder expectations then this upcoming quarterly could maybe beseen as reasonably solid all things considered IMHO? It will not be seen thisway however if shareholders are expecting that every order that has beenannounced will be reflected in this QTR. I just can’t see that happening IMHO.
I do have more confidence in 2021 though.
That is - If, and it is always a BIIIIG “if” with BUD they cansort out this finance and finally get out of their own way to manufacture theirown bl00dy products and meet the market demand for LIFX. C’mon BUD, you haveone job!
Hopefully completing this finance will allow them to do that, andif the market accepts what could possibly be only an “OK” quarterly, IMHOopinion the sentiment could quickly change and become forward looking ashopefully we will see a flood of orders coming in over the next two months thatBUD will have the funds to actually build!
One can only dream….
All IMHO. DYOR.
