TRY 0.00% 3.0¢ troy resources limited

Ann: Euroz Conference Presentation, page-92

  1. 9,782 Posts.
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    nightmare - not to be slighting of you - but that analysis doesnt make any sense. stock prices dont get measured on basis of share price vs share price.

    they get measured on relatvie valuation of earnings/per share., resource per share etc

    RSG is roughly 3x as expensive as TRY on a forward EPS basis assuming TRY hits the 150kozpa at $us450/oz aisc that the positive reconciliation appears to suggest

    ie. RSG currently $60m normalised NPAT - $360m mkt cap = 6x p/e

    TRY currently $60- 80m NPAT likely - $187m mkt cap = 3 - 2x p/e

    but the difference is TRY is where RSG was last December - its historic numbers still look terrible.

    Will need to prove the positive reconciliation numbers actually are true and repeatable before it gets priced for more than its guidance = 110koz at $733AUD aisc = $88m operational cashflow = prob 40m NPAT if you put the debt repayments to one side.

    So for now - small cap instos will only value TRY at $40m npat = nearly 5x p/e. And conservative instos wont touch it at all until it delivers a half year report that shows profitability.

    So contrasting rsg and try share prices is largely misleading - as they also arent technically on the same trends.
 
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