Given it is the eve of another ANN and there is questions around to what extent FAR need to be disclosing information, I put together some thoughts;
(I would say Cath, however it would be a collective with the board within FAR coaching the team as to what they should do), is FAR looking to gradually increase FAR's value to ensure that they are not a target for a cheap takeover.
I would say the majority of the investors in FAR are Mum's and Dad's with the majority of the institutions not actually able to pump money in yet. Have a look at the questions on Hotcopper and with respect many of the investors are not O&G savvy (including myself - although learning fast), some are new to investing it would seem.
Once we have wells that are deemed commercial, then I believe the big money will roll in, in droves. Prior to that point however we are at the discretion of Mum's and Dad's sentiment.
I would say it's a tough place to be. I believe FAR is worth a lot more than the sum of it's parts, currently everyone is excited about Senegal and rightly so - however read up on Kenya, almost 3 times the prospects.
Cath and the board would have a feel for the fair value of FAR right now and I would say it eclipses it's current value, per the report from Bell Potter (which I have heard through brokers is very fair and accurate).
Back to the question of disclosure - what to report, per the obligations, vague at best - however compliments to the team at FAR for going above and beyond and keeping us updated and assisting in gradually driving up the facts backing this amazing story. Especially in light of no news from Cairn and or COP.
All in all, the FAR story has just begun. As I have mentioned many times we have an amazing amount of catalysts pending;
In my best guess at the order;
1. SNE-1 - Oil shows confirmed - Stock price to high teens.
2. FAN-1 - Commercial viability confirmed, Oil in place estimates upgraded - Stock price to 40's.
3. ASX induction in December - based on market cap and cash reserves, I believe we should make it. Stock price to 50's. (I am VERY excited about this, the 193rd largest MC on the ASX200 is $300M, with ours at $330, although from this week I think this will jump up by 40%+ and hold it, we should theoretically be a sitter for the ASX200).
4. Commercial negotiations with Conoco for sale of the Senegalese lease. Into January / February. Stock price ~$1+
5. Takeover of PCL. January.
6. Farmout of L6 to Conoco January - Stock price $1+
7. A long wait to more news with gradual increases into 2015 awaiting other catalysts.....
Takeover of PCL is my latest rumour I am starting, it is speculative, however if we have proved up our Geo skills, then I think with more cash in the bank if we sell Senegal down, it would be a bargain. (BTW, Although I have traded PCL, I don't currently own it.)
My mornings musings.
Feel free to disagree, no one knows for sure.
Aquamale28!
Have a great day guys.
(if you can't read between the lines, FAR has a lot more to give)!!!!
I honestly believe we have 10 times the current value to come in over the next year. To date we have been driven on Sentiment, throw fact into the mix and income and the big boys can invest...
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