Ok now I had time to enter all the new data into my cash flow...

Ok now I had time to enter all the new data into my cash flow assessment and valuation for EVN and RMS.

EVN new forecast for net cash increase and free cash flow drop about by $20M a year, but they get a cash payment of $40M, so that covers 2 years, then they get the royalty or payment of $50M more, so maybe 4 years of earnings. So they are basically getting 5 years or more of cash profits from the mine up front, removing future liabilities, and they lower their headline AISC costs. All of which very good for shareholders so I am happy.

RMS new forecast actually has their cashflow go up $40M (including $10M extra capital that EVN forecast for Edna May) so not such a bad year for them if they hit their guidance. Presumably this is based on better performance over the current quarter. Maybe it is affected by lower amortisation of capital costs, if the sale price is lower than the book value in EVN, and I think EVN would book a non cash loss on the sale there was no info on this, but I really don't know how these things work so don't trust me there.

This is actually better than I expected for RMS, and slightly puzzling, it means that RMS is using much better metrics for their combined AISC ... I think it is also because the production and AISC reduction was heavily skewed to the second half year when the underground kicks in, so EVN has taken the worst quarter hit already. The real question is will Edna May perform as EVN has convinced RMS to expect and will meet forecasts? I think it will be a bit tough for the first few quarters, but I also have confidence in EVN being honest and having a good reputation to keep up so I would not doubt their forecasts.

So maybe not so bad, tempted to put RMS back as a buy, given the technical support, will wait and see how market reacts.