Ann: EVR Delivers 324,275 Oz in 2013 and Forecast, page-5

re: Ann: EVR Delivers 324,275 Oz in 2013 and ... ITS

Thanks for the article.

The problem with Casey is that he has been saying buy the goldies for perhaps 8-9 months, if not longer. That is OK if you know how to trade them, otherwise you can get your ass kicked in.

In the absence of speculation, there is no reason to buy gold at present due to low inflation in US/Europe/Japan, slowing growth in countries that hoard gold (India/China/Turkey), the continued threat of commodity deflation, restrictions on Indian gold imports, that the peak period for Chinese gold buying is about to end or has ended, and the possibility of a rapidly falling US sharemarket leading to a selloff of both gold and goldies. So far QE tapering has not been negative for the gold market, as far as I can tell, but this seems to be more sentiment driven than anything tangible.

Martin Armstrong who has had a good record on his gold calls thinks gold will not take off until around September 2015. In the meantime I suppose there will be a lot of trading opportunities and some goldies will go up as they build up their production profile and/or sort out a range of issues, including production costs. Finally the lower AUD will help our goldies.

I do not want to be without any goldies in case I am wrong, but I am mindful that conditions have not really significantly turned for the better - POG is only up 6% from the bottom. This has been a fairly lengthy bottoming process for the POG since late June 2013.

Finally, one of my gold "guru" (Larry Edelson) keeps telling me that the POG has yet to bottom, and he believes it should fall to around USD1040, but may get to USD800! Unfortunately he has been right too often for me to just ignore his calls.

loki