A11 atlantic lithium limited

Ann: Ewoyaa Definitive Feasibility Study, page-9

  1. 11,252 Posts.
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    Definitely the markets react to headline news ... algorithmic trading is designing to do that and once it starts the "momentum" quant funds pile in.

    Probably the #1 dislike headline is "Payback Period" - and that it a cross Neil Herbert made for himself (sorry Neil, Len, KP). So here's the "offending quote" (from the Dec'22 Webinar transcript)

    "We used an average price of US$1,360. That's obviously substantially below what the market is today and where it's been recently. But even at that relatively low number the numbers are really quite incredible. So, you see an IRR of 224% a payback period of five months. Yes, I've worked in the industry for many years. I've worked on some great projects but normally we express payback in years, so this is really quite something"

    And that's where the pain in the SP comes from. Expectations were set high (I know I was expecting something extraordinary ... and talked with Mgmt about this very thing) - but that's why we have SS/PFS/DFS/BFS/... Even now the pill is bitter to swallow ... can't say a little over 1.5 years but 19 months.

    So Atlantic raised its SC ASP (from US$1,360 for SC6 I believe) to $1,695 SC6 (which should have the effect of improving numbers) but had to also raise its Operating (C1) costs os US$622 (before secondary credits ... which IMO may be an unreliable market & price) which lowers everything.

    But of course we have raised SC production AFTER the early DMS stuff ... but that comes at a higher Capex Price AND extended time to payback. So for the investors looking to recycle capital thats big negative (if there are any O&G investors here ... think Recycle Ratio).

    While funding is of little concern (to me), production of SC6 (and SC5.5) is. This is because I also hold PLL and the Ewoyaa SC is destined for PLL's TLP refinery ... still have a little wriggle room but its getting close to JIT.

    Will continue to digest ...@WhatsTheTip the production schedule is the key one ... be real interested in your thoughts there after you've digested this over the w/end.


 
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