I dont think BoD (or anyone) foresaw $800USD/t spodumene pricing so quickly. At the time they released DFS they used a very conservative assumption of $1400ishUSD/t, from memory the going price was still well north of $2200USD/t.
I also don't think BoD thought the Government would drag the licence ratification out this long when they have pretty attractive ownership in this (It will actually benefit them long run as pricing recovers).
Crashing prices also hit their JV partner Piedmont hard and it's a double edged sword because they need them to fund the majority of CAPEX and they are running NAL mine at a heavy loss and won't have the Hydroxide plants running where Ewoyaa feedstock was destined for, they won't be jumping at FID unless they can secure an off-take partner.
Considering the above the project short term is in for pain and I can see a 2 year delay on 1st production pushed back into 2028.
if everything went right they would have a mine that prints cash. 40% project ownership in a 360ktpa mine with probably top 5 AISC in all the released DFS' to date and the currently operating projects. Risk vs reward is there.
I like to think the opportunity for co. to become Li equivalent of Perseus on West African Resources is clear.
A11 Price at posting:
26.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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