Four things have happened, but that doesn't make it any easier as a shareholder in RDT.
1. Silence from RDT around any announcements meaning that RDT is being buffeted by general market moves
2. On the 7th of Feb ESS released a scoping study (noted below)
3. On the 14th of Feb GL1 released a scoping study (noted below)
4. The general market has fallen
There's only a small number of pre-FID JORC resources in Australia. ESS has one subject to a takeover, GL1 has two of them. RDT as one. LTR also has one but this is largely irrelevant given the size of their main Kathleen Valley project that its now under construction. This makes what GL1 and ESS are doing important as they are close equivalent stage companies to RDT.
The scoping study on the 7th of Feb from ESS involved approximately $293m of capex for a 194kt/yr production capacity and 1.2Mt of throughput. I believe this capital cost was higher than the market was thinking, but the ESS share price has been protected from a significant fall due to the current 50c takeover. ESS's proposed plant was a combined DMS + Flotation with magnetic separation. The NPV was rather ho-hum at A$367m (10% real) although with some different assumptions the numbers could have been quite a bit higher.
On the 13th of Feb GL1 closed at $2.09. By the end of the 14th after releasing its scoping study GL1 was down to $1.92 and has traded down every day since then and is now down to $1.56. While the general market decline won't have helped, the market is trashing GL1's share price. Presumably some of this is due to not liking the scoping study. The GL1 scoping proposal involved $435m of capex for a plant processing 2Mt per year and delivering 221kt at an average of 5.5%. Like ESS, GL1's plant involved a combination of DMS and flotation and magnetic separation. The NPV was however strong at A$2.8b (8% pre-tax).
RDT's 4 May 2022 presentation noted 50% DMS only recovery (6.08%) and 74% recovery to 6.2% grade with DMS+Flotation. The market is presumably now thinking that the capex for RDT to get Mt Ida into production is higher than previously thought which pushes down the share price.
Also the wider ASX listed lithium market has been hammered from the biggest (PLS) down. CXO and LTR both more advanced than GL1 but both were hammered 18% since the 3rd. Most of RDT's fall will simply represent this general market fall. While GT1 is over in Canada, its also been hammered. Even current market darlings like WR1 are down 10%.
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