I've just done a rough calculation on HMW,
On updated lithium carbonate price of US$18,594/ton,
HMW on 20ktpa capacity (likely to update to 25ktpa on upcoming DFS):
- Annual EBITDA: US$312m
- Annual free cash flow: US$206m (AUD$286m per year after tax)
Post tax NPV should be over AUD$2 billion for HMW alone.
Combined Candelas, post-tax NPV should be over AUD$3B.
Then, you could do another exercise based on Roskill updated long term lithium carbonate price for 2025 - 2040, ~USD$25,000/ton, the figures would go through the roof.
Anyway, I like using the conservative and reasonable one of US$18k per ton for long term despite LTR used USD$29,402/ton for LHM for 2026 - 2040.
I think this Christmas will be wonderful and 2022 probably will be much better.
All imo & GLTA.
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