What is $1,500 based on?
Apparently one broker suggests AISC could be as low as close to $1,000 but that is just for NN.
We have no mine plan, no view from SPR of whether they will just mine NN/Pepper or extent it to open pits or include WW, 4P, no view from SPR of annual production - will it be 130k Oz, 150k Oz, 200k Oz?, no view from SPR how much the mill be will processing - will it be 1mtpa or 1.5mtpa or more and at what head grade, and we still need more met tests results to get a better view of recoveries, no view from SPR of mine life, no reserve yet, etc etc. As far as I am aware we have no indication from SPR when they will release a FS, what level of resources they want or how much drilling they want to complete before doing a FS other than a vague view which seems to be others views, of maybe an FS late this year and a vague view of when they may start production in late 2025 (again nothing concrete from SPR).
There are so many unknows.
My real point is that no one knows what the AISC will be. $1,500 maybe just as good a guess as $1,000 or $1,200 and I feel it may be lower than $1,500. One can probably make a case for $1,000 as one broker did or $1,500 as it depends on the assumptions one makes about all the above unknowns.
If SPR is being or going to be viewed as being like BGL then the AISC needs to be below $1,500 and and probably closer to $1,250.
As SPR puts numbers around the unknowns, then the projects will be de-risked and if they are all good numbers then the SP will respond probably upwards - mining stocks tend to respond with higher prices as projects are de-risked with good numbers.
With underground drilling starting maybe in 4 months time with an initial 60,000m program, my own view is that SPR will need to see the results of that program before they finalise a mine program so that we are very unlikely to see a FS come out until FH 2025 and maybe later. What if the UG drilling identifies another NN/Pepper under 4P or WW? If they do then I cannot see an FS until SH of 2025. If they do find more NN/Peppers then the annual production maybe at least 200k Oz pa.
Expand
(20min delay)