Another duck lined up, indicating to me the progress to completion of the Dubbo deal is not far off. It is consistent with management of ASM & key Korean partners having a high level of confidence in the funding & implementation of the project. Note, the target date for signing of the FEED contract is, Q1 2022. This is an expenditure decision which will commit ASM; a decision which would not be made without a high level, indeed surety Dubbo financing deal is close to procedural completion. I say this because the quality & capability of ASM's management does not take risks. While there will be prerequisite clauses within the HOA, a contract within 4-5 weeks will a be much more definite commitment. This announcement by David Woodall & HEC CEO, Kim Chang-Hag is confirmation of the significance of this announcement. CEO at his level don't trot out for 'maybe' commitments. The exclusivity of negotiations with HEC, after a earlier request for interest by ASM indicates considerable leg work, vetting against project definition has already been undertaken.
Woodall won't be rushed however I think it highly likely in the light of current geopolitical developments, there will now be increased political & industrial imperative to advance REE projects. While the west is busy hand wringing over Ukraine & trying to look big in the face of having their bluff called, by imposing more sanctions, Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan etc will be concerned the US led NATO impotence has sent a far wider message about the size of the US's 'big stick' these days. China may well be emboldened. Biden & Blinken have been wedged by the Axis of Putin & Xi. If Xi moves on Taiwan, will Biden intervene militarily? If he does, against China, what's to stop Putin grabbing more satellites including NATO affiliates in Europe? Is the US able to sustain war on two fronts with global powers? China has already signaled it will buy more Russian wheat, oil & gas. What if China now also decide to turn off all export of critical/strategic materials?
I've followed closely the geopolitics of Asia, Central & South Asia, Eastern Europe & Middle East for many years. It's been clear Putin & Xi have been building resilience through Belt & Road, BRIC Bank trading & Russia's North/South strategy & the Shanghai conferences for the past decade. It has been very clear the continuing push by NATO, driven by US resolve to surround Russia's border, despite Clinton/baker, EU, & Thatcher having sworn never to do so, when Russia reluctantly agreed to the reunification of Germany, has been front & center in Russian security concerns. One could even ponder that if the west had not pushed NATO east, as promised, Putin might not have been electable in the first place. What's happened now would not be happening if domestic US politics hadn't seen Biden/Blinken refuse any diplomatic concession. The sad part of this is the goodies look weaker & the baddies are emboldened.
REEs & magnets, critical minerals are now very much in play with far higher focus & urgency.
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