I’ve held ADT since a long time and am quite probably the oldest shareholder who has still not sold a share. Original comment below at 20c
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ipo-adriatic-metals-limited.4086841/page-52?post_id=32918650
Obviously, there have been plenty of hiccups along the way (Milos leaving, Sandfire legal issues, Dodik in Bosnia, Covid crash, etc) and it is never completely easy although the rewards can be good and sometimes better if you stay the course.
Some thoughts on recent developments -
1/ Silver and macro
Barring a major macro / liquidity / Margin call event, silver is looking pretty decent.
Recent pullback to around 26-28 is quite normal before silver potentially launches significantly higher. I spoke of the importance of this level 4 years back when silver was making its initial run to this level, and yes,
this level was really that important as we can now see clearly over the years
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/an...-mines-money.5476962/page-45?post_id=46136565
ADT along with most silver stocks should ideally do very well in a higher silver environment.
My primary expectation is that silver already broke out in last few months (genuine breakout and not a fake one) and recently backtested this very critical level (which was a very critical resistance level that I spoke about 4 years back). Obviously I'm hoping this level holds and if it does, then rise could be pretty material.
2/ Macro
Yes, although I’ve mentioned “Barring a major macro / liquidity / Margin call event” above, macro issues is a very real risk, and a far bigger risk than any tailings dam issue, IMO. My primary expectation is that recent macro events are not the “BIG” event (although I could be wrong). Recent fall is IMO primarily due to Yen carry trade issues, no rate cuts by Fed etc.
Having said that, I’ll be very surprised if the major event does not hit within next 12 months at the latest – so ADT has to get its act in order and fast, reach nameplate capacity and start printing and conserving cash at what I think could be higher silver levels.
I’ve put silver and macro even before other factors because IMO, if silver does what silver can do, the whole scenario can change pretty fast
3/ Recent Cap raising
IMO, recent cap raising at highs was fabulous.
I wish we had raised 50-100 million more to be honest.
I don’t really know why many investors were complaining about it at the time, and spare cash at a critical ramp up time would be handy. Obviously Paul is looking like a genius now for raising at such a high level
4/ CFO buying
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/adriatic_metals/news/rns/story/x4j1jpx
CFO just bought 30,000 GBP of shares around GBP 1.36-1.37
Obviously a vote of confidence coming from CFO who would be aware of financial position (even more than us) and no one would want to throw away around AUD 60,000 in 1 go (unless they won Powerball and maybe even not then
), if they thought the ship was sinking
5/ Transition might be for the best
“
Laura Tyler is currently a Non-Executive Director of Adriatic, and brings substantial operating, technical and leadership skills to the role of Interim Chief Executive Officer. Her experience as Chief Technical Officer at BHP, as well as prior roles in Executive Leadership for the Olympic Dam, Cannington, and Ekati underground mines, will ensure Adriatic has the strength of leadership to steer the Vares Silver Operation through ramp up and into steady state production, whilst continuing to grow the reserve base at both Vares and Raska.” - from announcement
I thank Paul for his tremendous contribution over the years but
for the sake of his own wellbeing (taking into account recent social media issues), the pressure seems to be getting to him and it might be for the best if someone with technical background steer the ship for now.
I’m more than thrilled to see that he’s still with ADT as a consultant (and hope he never leaves), and would have no hesitation in looking up any company associated with him as a director, as a potential investment
6/ Conclusion
Yes plenty of uncertainties recently but I’ve intentionally put silver as my first point above. IMO, ADT now really needs to shrug aside recent setbacks and come up with NO MORE SURPRISES.
If silver does what silver can do, with ADT being a low cost miner, market should ideally start pricing things in.
A close eye on global overall macro is needed, however and hope ADT can reach nameplate before a big inevitable (IMO) macro event.
Good luck to all. Cheers
