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09/08/19
09:34
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Originally posted by Lazarus65
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I am starting to form an opinion that the overt absence of any attempts by the company to actively market and promote its investability is a deliberate ploy for the time-being. While it is frustrating to many of us retail shareholders and infuriating to some, I get the sense that this matters much less to the bigger shareholders (and insiders) than does the need to keep a happy retail investor base. For the primary reason being that they do not anticipate the need for a CR in the forseeable future. And the significant dilution that the now expired and the looming November options represent (given their low exercise price versus the company's self-funded machine creating intrinsic value, quarter by quarter), would be unwarranted pain for the inside holders. IMO. So we had a exercise rate of about 7% of eligible oppies in the round just expired. For a cash desperate company that would be woeful. But in our case, I suspect that this is just about perfect.
After all, let's be blunt....the stock price in the near term, only matters in terms of it being a currency to raise funds. And the need to raise funds are either to keep the lights on or to fund an acquisition. We seem to be well and truly over the first hurdle of keeping the lights on (within the foreseeable future horizon), and my guess is that there is no acquisition target being contemplated prior to the expiry of the bulk of the outstanding options. It seems to me that the oppies were the price to pay for the funds raised for prior acquisitions...and given that those acquisitions have fared so exceedingly well so far (touch wood), the BoD is in a place to minimise the dilutionary impact of those oppies. And that is by starving them of the viability to be exercised.
While most 'outsider' shareholders would have already baked the oppies into their calcs, I suspect the insiders assessment is that these oppies are a gift that they can afford to try and starve out. Probably fair enough as it is unlikely that the oppies would have been the factor that swayed participants in those CR's to participate or not.
If this theory is correct, we may start to see a change in IR tactics after the November oppies exercise date has passed. If Q3 meets or beats guidance, it will be intriguing to see how management decides to play the narrative between then and the November oppie expiry date. At some stage, the value of the currency will become important again. Hopefully sooner rather than later.
Just speculating on my part, and for all I know, the (relative) radio silence may continue well beyond this.
GLTA over the coming couple of quarters.
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It will be interesting to see what happens here.
"Convertible notes with a combined face value of $670,000, maturing 15 December 2019, 10% p.a. interest accruing, convertible at 1.1 cents per share"
It is my view that the share price will be 2 or 3 times higher by then!
If not 10% should make them happy. Us, not so much.