the value by the market is a perpetual animal in flux.
Consider the rise to 200m mc, consider the fall to 13m mc.
Neither is absolute. All is sentiment toward the coming storm, or rising sunshine.
Speculative value can be a spring leaf, or an autumn one.
The risk off prize is the ultimate tangible value, is many years away. Or it can be a takeover from left field.
It is the potential of mega cash cow returns on volumes of NP that can become integral in standard of care. And for either us , or a predator to capture.
The rise up is based on progression toward that prize. The fall is a sentiment driven of which that prize seems not forthcoming.
Yet a delay in recruitment in a phase 1 trial, if that meant that potential forward cash flows was delayed, not abandoned. That prize still sits there to be risked. If it is achieved, all the volatility of those that follow the other sheep off the cliff, or those who recognize it is all still there in waiting, remains for the patient to risk bet on.
As news flow that the winter has passed, and expectations that progression of a phase 2 trial is to occupy the market psyche, its up to everyone to decide, what speculative value this will gain buoyancy towards. That is the market. Greed displaces fear and impatience that feeds fear of the other guy. FOMO.
If you think that say 20m mc, is it ? for a paradigm change in the diagnosis conga line, just as those who once thought that and sold this in the first run up for a fraction of where it lifted to? You bet against the market of greed. A herd of hungry buffalo that want to drink from this river.
Greed is always what drives FOMO. Because that potential prize, is measured in $ gazillions. And while profit takers and those who are tarnished with the imprint of the hoof which the previous sheep left on their backs as they stampeded toward the cliff, need to be flushed. ,,, the spring is coming. Volatility is just part of that journey.
Volatilty brings a new stampede, as it brings the old herd to the elephant grave yard.
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