I do appreciate that a stock that has fallen to earth, will have many who are underwater.
But that is the market. Timing the market.
For mine, Get set early, at low valuations when you can identify blue sky. So a difficult proposition when you come in late, at the cloud level, at which you are buying with risk of execution delays. And exactly what unfolded.
But history tells us, that a market that senses the upward momentum of news flow with a trial of this significance, upward values the tech. FOMO. Exactly what occurred in the first run to 200m mc. The subsequent glacial movement of patient recruitment, due to covid, and a lack of management prepared to incentivise patients, draws genuine and heart felt criticism.
But look at where we are. Phase 1 De-risked and the phase 2, suggested likely to not have the recruitment issues of phase 1.
There is your bet on the momentum train. And if IBX 1.0 test flight reached 200m mc, what does the bet of a successful momentum in phase 2, to return us there ? And beyond. ?
Think about what draws moths to the flame. A very real bet, that a fraction of the forward prize, can be achieved in our valuation, when the sense of the market is that it moves toward that prize.
So in IBX case, think how many MRIs, how many MRX, both will potentially use our NPs, and multiple cancer types.
While that potential cash flow is years away, and still has risk on to wade through, so is say the oil sales from a drill rig that moves out to sea to set up an exploration well for a billion barrel target. And the risk on price moves upward in expectation.
The phase 1 de-risk, is a better platform to be standing on this time, leading into phase 2, for the same base entry price.
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