Always appreciate your view Spec but I think the small mine argument has to be adjusted to the times.
First I totally acknowledge that the UG re-entry has its own risks but that is it's own discussion.
If you rewind 4-5 years you and I both probably would have been perfectly happy buying a 100-120koz developer when they were expecting to make A$1k margins. We now have MEK looking to produce 65k average at $2k margins. Total expected EBITDA slightly better for MEK than that theoretical producer. Margin for error is kind of the same in both cases. The normal argument is that smaller production base on fixed costs is the risk but at the moment the margin is there to allow this type of operation to be successful.
To this point even after overnight action AUD gold sitting $100 above FS level which they state adds $52m in undiscounted cashflow. I only see that AUD gold number going one way so that leverage is there.
Capex is funded so we roll forward 6 months to start of production and NPV8 post tax becomes c. A$490m So MEK currently trading 0.4x NAV at July next year. In my opinion there is still a fair bit of runway left here.
To your highlighted point there is 250koz of OP material not included in production plan based on using $2600 pit shells, even another cut back at $3,000-$3,200 probably gives you another year of production. UG extensions etc + I still think GBR would be an accretive bolt on to supplement Andy Well and could push this out to 15 years or allow plant expansion.
I think these guys are good operators and why I am willing to take some risk on this re-start and the overall plan.
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Last
18.0¢ |
Change
0.005(2.86%) |
Mkt cap ! $452.8M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
17.5¢ | 18.5¢ | 17.5¢ | $3.594M | 20.07M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
19 | 980778 | 17.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
18.0¢ | 333330 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
15 | 950590 | 0.175 |
20 | 933016 | 0.170 |
24 | 1743934 | 0.165 |
27 | 2912331 | 0.160 |
33 | 3115143 | 0.155 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.180 | 333330 | 2 |
0.185 | 2122832 | 13 |
0.190 | 4282029 | 13 |
0.195 | 618943 | 8 |
0.200 | 2986528 | 17 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 13/06/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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