re: Ann: Expansion Program and Revenue Projec...
$9.5 is revenue, not profit, so it's a P/S of 1.5 - which is not especially cheap (depending on sector).
It is really difficult to figure the accounts on this stock due to high level of biological assets. Since the asset values are determined by likely future returns rather than cost, and the cost of goods is based on asset values, the profit statement becomes a bit academic. Cashflow is useful, but only when the business is in steady state - it will tend to understate profitability when the business is in growth mode.
Overall, I am thinking their figures are indicative of operating cashflow about $2m for the 2010 year, so more like a P/E of 7. The value in holding this will come in cashflow over the next 5 years, but sounds like that may not translate into dividends for another couple of years at least.
Long term, I think this is very good value, but it could also be a very long term wait for the proof of that. Meanwhile, there's just a regular dose of director buying to sustain the share price. And it's not particularly cheering to read they're chasing new capital for expansion at such a depressed sp. From a shorter term perspective, shareholders would have been better off with a year of good cashflow under their belts and another small div to underpin the sp.
ATP Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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