Looks like this.
1 - Free cash flow (~140m) probably no dividend
2 - Lihir at breakeven is value loss
3 - More impairment more value loss
4 - Good AISC from short life assets risksy
5 - Gold price uncertainty (with a downward bias) looks risky
6 - It is all up to Cadia to make the dough ( and to repay the debt)
Used to like NCM for Lihir and Cadia, however the quarterly is scrapping Lihir off the likeable list. The company with Cadia as a price driver looks expensive at current market cap. Fair value seems more closer to the low $9, unless gold price appreciates considerably. If the gold price does appreciate, there are better gold companies to enjoy gains from. NCM looks risky all around, hopefully it goes to $9 so I can buy.
DYOR
NCM Price at posting:
$10.87 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held