Expecting the EXU share price to tank the next few days I looked...

Expecting the EXU share price to tank the next few days I looked over the ALK offer quickly and could not find they had any option to break from the deal by choice or any condition based on the EXU share price.  There was an option to walk away if RMS obtained more than 30% of EXU.

From this I wondered if the majority of EXU shareholders not represented on hotcopper may still accept the offer when it becomes clear there will be no better offer and they prefered it to the ALK offer.  Given the indicative values of the RMS and ALK offers at 12c after due diligence, it shows the value of a deal with RMS to develop the assets fast and free of further unknowns and risks such as further dilution.  Only a 30% acceptance would then subsequently allow ALK the option to withdraw their share purchase, which would quickly facilitate at least 90% acceptance.

Even if ALK decided not to withdraw their offer with RMS owning 30%, but make it unconditional, RMS could use the defeating conditions to return all the shares back to EXU.  Alternatively they could reconsider and proceed for 50% majority.  The extra shares that ALK purchase would be at 12c still which is a significant premium to what the EXU price would be at the AGM.  It depends what happens with the other incentives ALK had with their offer, but the options would be forfeit.

I don't really know the validity or likelyhood of all the options above, but I was surprised to find ways the deal may not be as dead in the water as I had thought.  Not really sure if I like it any more either, given the results of RMS due diligence.