Split - the 114,239 dmt was taken from the PLS half year accounts to Dec 2020 and for the purposes of that illustration was ONLY a cross reference to the capabilities of the combined NAL / Authier production through the NAL 250,0000 tonnes per annum Concentrator. It was only to show that either of Authier or NAL would have been equivalent to Pilbara's present output capabilities. So whether it's 114 MT through the Concentrator , or 114 x TWO ......or even 250,000 of which is close to your 281,000 or even the 220,000 which was just from Altura's contributing plant , the point there was that the NAL / Authier capability of producing spodumene is on par.
The real part of the calculation if you look again is the assumption of comparing TOTAL Lithium reserves which granted , I only plucked out of that KAI map reference and not from there DFS's JORC tables. Irrespective , I assume these to be more or less correct and so used them as a comparison to the rounded estimates of 70 MT for the NAL / Authier duo.
So what we're doing here is comparing ( without Sayona's Pilbara Lithium or gold assets ) the TONNAGE of available in ground lithium relative to the increase or decrease reflected on the TWO companies comparative Market Cap's.
So I'm comfortable this valuation method along with the other different calculations which have been put up. What I like about ALL the different calculations whether it be on a comparative Price to Book or projects and acquisition basis ....or even the fact that the 22,000 tonnes of Carbonate had finally been accepted as a significant value driver is that ALL of these calculations keep coming back in support of the same linear SP price projections and expectations as has been put up.
So granted it's always going to be a moving target so even if we use Pilabara's figures in its March 2021 Investor presentation of a combined 268 MT of Lithium in ground ore reserves , this will have ultimately changed again once they update with their highly prospective drilling results which were handed down in May 2021.
We also have to keep in mind and could talk all day of the significant differences from Pilbara's valuable Tantalum byproducts credits which Sayona is yet to prove up from any of their current project economic studies. However this aside , I still believe the byproducts would be more than offset by the 100% discount applied and the fact that the Calculation excludes ALL of Sayona's Pilbara assets as well as any yet to be defined contributing JORC from Tansim.
So lets run the calculation again based on PLS's March corporate presentation and their Market Capialization as at yesterday's market close. And you can see by doing this that the figures bounce around quite a bit while the ' Divisor ' tonnages of Sayona remain static and unexplored and undefined in terms of JORC.
But what I like about these numbers and which brings me back to perhaps Hard rock peer comparison's which we should also be focusing on is 1.) the Rock Tech Lithium / Avalon Advanced Materials proposed Thunder Bay Lithium Processing HUB ( which is a considerable way off in terms of development ) , and 2.) the comparative market cap valuation of Sigma Lithium's Brazilian XUXA's propose north and south pit and who have only just broken ground on their first Phase of that project being 220,000 tonnes of spodumene.
So when we update the comparison to those TWO similar projects with similar strategic imperatives and outcomes , we see that the Combined valuations of Rock Tech and Avalon who were up some 7.36% & 7.41% respectfully.... have a combined A$415.56 million and being way off that of where Sayona's Quebec's HUB is currently at , with Sigma Lithium up another 6.7% to C$8.60 and a market cap Australian Dollar equivalent of $816.32 million
So you can see again with a comparison to Sigma's more closely reflected project that Sayona's price would again land currently around the 14 cent mark.
And numbers don't lie.......no matter how many times you re-work them. So once Sayona and its partners AJM prove up more TONNAGE's both here in Australia and in Canada , the sooner we can further close the discount in valuations to our larger peer comparisons in the likes of Pilbara Minerals and others . And I don't think it is any coincidence that I.Q and Quebec do not make any money from their continue investment until the Share Price reaches levels of around 35 - 40 cents.
So yeah lots has to happen I agree , but remember Lynch's comments regarding ' Baby Steps ' .....but ' Quickly ' .....so I will personally take that to mean ' In succession ' , and like a Baby who learns relatively quickly how to walk within 9 - 12 months only.
(20min delay)