Markets are short sighted. The reason SFR has seen some weakness in last few days is more to do with the fact that some investment banks have reduced their copper price forecast for 2025/2026 mainly because of the impact of Trump tariffs on China.
Fair play to those funds that have a shorter term horizon - nothing wrong with taking some chips off the table and re-enter at few pips below this next year.
On the flip side of this argument - The longer term thesis for copper is the strongest it has ever been. For those with a investment horizon that is longer than 2025/26 it may be a good time to start building up a position is quality names like SFR.
There was nothing wrong in the presentation on the 3rd. Sandfire has not put a foot wrong and have delivered flawlessly. I could not be happier with Brendan and Megan (CFO) who never gets a mention. Not long ago the company was heavily geared and cash flows were negative.
Today Sandfire is pumping out 155Ktpa of copper equivalent production, have a beautiful organic growth strategy as they made public on 3rd Dec.
155ktpa with a 15 year reserve life = A$7.5 billion valuation Black Butte is shaping up to be a real good opportunity. Wait for the PFS to drop on that - It could be another 500M - $1B on NPV Last but not the lease - Kalahari Belt offers blue sky potential that Aussie tenements in Mt Isa etc could never offer. One big discover here could add billions to valuation overnight. 60million worth spending!
In my books Sandfire has potential to be a $10 billion plus M&A target if Winu is valued at aussie 2 billion. I am a buyer below 10.
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