With a high chance (inevitable imo) CR requiring ~$50M (if they can get that much) to keep the show on the road (15% dilution at 20c, be very surprised if they can get more debt/prepayments on the books with the dismal performance to date and the likelyhood it would be subordinated debt) over the next 6-9 months, I dare say you have made the right move. I would have done the same thing, quite a while ago though. Id be very surprised if a CR doesnt get done before release of current quarterly - end of Oct.
1. Offtake partners calling the shots for lithium supply as per posters comment from management briefings. I still cant fathom how they have this much power over Altura product, I thought that was a rumour. J+R issues known for many many months. Whether you say there was no predicting offtake partner going bust, maybe, but there is no arguments that its atrocious terms that were agreed to by Altura management for product sales.
2. Other Offtake partner still constructing conversion facilities. No guidance from the company while shareholders bleed.
3. Shorts small but steadily increasing.
4. Very little this company announces can be taken seriously. If timelines blow out a few months, costs blow out a little, production takes little longer to ramp up, offtake partner issues, poor communication to shareholders, in isolation no problem but when most of these things happen to a company, look out.
5. Most holders have invested in a company whose metrics will only rise, i.e more disappointments.
DFS opex pricing already raised sneakily > 10% from $310 -> $350, no reason that I could see from the company as to why? Just because. They will never get close to the guided figures, $400-450 best case scenario imo.
6. No technical details, Concentrate grades, FE content, mica etc etc of product even though been "producing" for approx 6 weeks and a fully working lab onsite.
7. Likelyhood of stage 2 FID very low over the next 6-12 months based on still unknown commercial product specs (consistency), length of ramp up + real actual nameplate figures (not company guidance) which will affect costs of production and wont be achieved for a while, high debt and poor execution of stage 1.
In closing This company is a total shambles at the moment, I can see no reason to invest here at the current state of play and if it was a gold producer it would be lucky to be 10c right now. DYOR.
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