I find it's best to observe gold sentiment through cross assets. Gold vs S&P has been getting trounced since 2011 except for 3 short counter trends lasting less then a year; 2016, 2020 and late 2022. Looks like SPX is going to continue to do well against gold into 2025, unless there's a sharp sustained reversal and break above this +12 year trend which would likely necessitate a GFC type structural shift (always a possibility and I would argue perhaps likely) in the real economy.
Where it looks a lot more constructive for the miners is the Gold vs GDX cross in the middle pic. We're nearing the go zone on that where miners outperform gold but like SPX cross it's potentially only a counter trend most likely short and sharp burst only lasting 6 - 8 months into year end. Again it would require a sustained breakout above the red resistance line to confirm miners are in a sustained bull market as opposed to counter-trending vs gold. Personally that's where I'll be looking to take profits in miners.
I have whole bunch of these types of charts that I follow religiously like copper/gold (lower pic), oil/gold etc.. both of which btw are pointing to sustained out performance of gold against industrial commodities historically indicating slowdown in the real economy. I don't believe a change in the rates environment will be cause enough to bring big institutional money back into miners to reverse the above trends, it requires an earthquake. But a dollar collateral shortage due to small banks imploding on commercial real estate loans sure might just be that thing. Bank Term Funding Program expires in March.
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