Ann: Exporation Recommences at Symons Hill , page-24

False logic.

Up until the weekend of the Nova discovery, there was nothing to 'know', and the market in SIR's shares for the preceding 11 months reflected that exactly.

Until the weekend of that first intersection, the company was next to worthless, with funds almost exhausted, and a statistically very slim chance of success, and the market definitely knew and correctly reflected that.

The market in a company's shares is a consensus on the reality of that company's business, track record and its likely future prospects, not some mystical tool for seeing into the future. It simply reflects the present, and the most likely outlook.

The fact that Sirius then went on to make a valuable discovery was a function of the fact that, with hundreds of companies out exploring, and every drilling rig in the country booked up and working flat out in the field at the height of a mineral boom, one of them was bound to make a discovery eventually. The fact that it was Sirius in Fraser Range and not a different company in a completely different place was pure luck. Nobody could have seen that coming: not the market, and least of all the directors, who were as shocked and surprised as the rest of us.

But that's grass roots exploration for you: it's a thousand-to-one outside chance, and you ignore the collective wisdom of the market at your utter peril.




(Don't act on anything I say though. I am not a financial adviser and this is not financial advice)