BUB 3.85% 12.5¢ bubs australia limited

Ann: Extension of Share Purchase Plan Offer, page-97

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  1. 156 Posts.
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    I hope so, that would be nice. It feels like we need to see something that gives business some sustainable traction. Yes they are strong ito cash but that is thanks to everyone putting more in.
    Feels like they had geared up for big growth, then things went pear shaped in the world, sales fell, stocks on hand increased massively. They got caught just at the wrong time - and needed cash! Is it not fair to say they are essentially banking on the success of this China investment otherwise they are going to have to significantly reduce costs to stay afloat.
    I have been watching this company for a while. And been quite impressed and excited by the concept of a vertically integrated model - a value add of primary production. Value added into products that the world wants! Now that is a genuine business based on a real platfrom.

    But - what is a little concerning in their report pg 37 - they talk about terminating Milk Supply and not exercising option on the CIBUS farms. This to me does not say a lot about their confidence. Yes they say they have lined up a supplier - but I am not sure how much everyone understands the goat dairy world - but there is not a supplier in Vic other than Meredith that is anywhere near capable doing what they say. (And Meredith is building steadily a vertically integrated success story themselves- without the need of money from the outside might I add)
    Not only that no Australian producers can afford to operate a dairy let alone grow at a the price they can import product from Europe.

    Sadly this looks a lot like they are heading down the perilous path of importing most of their base product ie. cheap product from overseas (see ya later Aussie goat farmers). And while they say it might be built on Australian milk it wont be much. ie. this is a $450mill mkt cap company that is starting to run on a fair bit of spin!!

    So their main supplier has left, their main growth customers (china) have gone missing, they are carrying heaps of stock, they cost a fair bit to operate. There is only one thing that will pull them through and that is the China investment being a success. And did that work for Fonterra?? Is this risk free??
    Is the only way up from here??
    It seems they are moving away from a really robust paddock to plate model, to a business buying a commodity, putting it in a tin and marketing the beejeezes out of it. Gone from a solid growing business based on a real platform of goats supporting Australian industry to a to a high cost marketing operation that buys cheap inputs from overseas - it starts to look very vulnerable!
    I would really like to be told i've got this wrong. I feel a bit disheartened as this company looked like it really had the right idea - but now I am genuinely worrried it might fall over - chasing the buck!!

    Interested in peoples thoughts.
 
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