So, they extend the SPP due to 'market conditions', which is vague, but if anything remotely sensible means 'We're wanting the share price to be above the offer price so people might take up the SPP'.
The extension ends on Friday, so if they want people to buy they're going to have to pull out that carrot immediately. I was wondering if we'd see something first thing this morning to start the week with an impetus for people to get ready by the end of the week, but no. Looking at the price, it seems a few other people had similar suspicions since the price went up late last week (with no other explanation I can see) but is down today after that carrot wasn't revealed.
Either management was delusional or stupid or their carrot is taking a bit longer than expected and they'll either miss out or extend the SPP again.
Assuming no further extension or news (which now seems most likely), you really have to wonder what they were thinking trying a SPP at above the share price without any exciting purpose for the money or any exciting news.
The fundamentals and technicals both point to a new low being hit very soon if they don't pull that rabbit out of their hat. If there is no news before the end of the week I predict a new 12 month low either late Friday or Monday (or most likely one at or around close on Friday followed by a new low on Monday). Between now and Monday, no news is very bad news. I can't understand the buyers at 19c and 19.5c today. The 19c ones particularly seem like a suicide strategy. Perhaps they have great faith in AEB revealing some exciting news very soon.
All of the above is my unqualified attempt at analysis of course, it's not advice, don't take action based on it, DYOR and make your own analysis.
AEB Price at posting:
20.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
