Hey coto,I don't think commodity prices will rebound in the next...

Hey coto,
I don't think commodity prices will rebound in the next fortnight. I actually think that the PoG will be making an intermediate Low before resuming it's bull run. The reason being that the US$ Index is developing a Head & Shoulders chart pattern.

I'm expecting a RS to form by late Jan / early Feb. Consequently, the PoG will make a L and EVN will follow with a possible 38% Fib Retrace to $3.59

I think this delay will benefit s/holders by:

1. Take advantage of the 2.5% discount to the 5-day volume-weighted average price of Shares traded on the ASX up to, and including, the revised SPP Closing Date(30January 2024). Possibly buying their shares in the $3.50's if EVN has a 38% Fib retrace.
2. With a falling PoG not so many retail will be aware of the formation of an intermediate L in the PoG. Hence those participating in the SPP will have a better chance of receiving their full allocation.
3. The saving on brokerage rather than waiting further to buy in market at a lower price.

Of course I've made a lot of assumptions. The biggest risk I see is that the PoG doesn't make an intermediate Low by the SPP closing date. EVN's sp could fall even further if the USD makes it's RS later than I've allowed for and the PoG falls further. Thus dragging down EVN's sp. It revolves around timing.

I'll still be maintaining my strategy of accumulating on any pullback.