With the Interest component having only fallen due last Thursday on 6th February , I'm not at all surprised that the extension's to the suspensions have been rolled over to encompass this date and the weekend. So will we see another ' rollover ' - my guess is NO , and we should here something in regards the settlement of terms associated with this Interest payment.
So , if the ' Interest ' payment , and lets call it approximately A $15 Million based on the current loan balance of $192,414,000 - could this negotiation with respect to this amount and any ' Penalty ' to maturity of any Interest associated with the ' re-financing ' transaction of the total loan balance.
As it currently stands , and by my calculations , I believe it's not all that hard to end up on a COH figure of circa $10 million or just above at the balance date of 31 December 2019.
I say this because we can work back the figures fairly easily making just a few ' conservative ' assumptions on the the current operating cost modelling. So if we assume what we produce is what we sell - which pretty much seems the case. And so going forward , if we use an estimated production and sales tonnage of 45,000 , we can then use the lower of the US selling price of US $550 or floor price less the approximate US $360 per tonne in estimated operating costs to arrive at a Gross Operating Margin of US$190 per tonne.
O.K so on that basis , we we can look back on the forecast December Qtrly estimated cash flow's , and can see that all ' Other ' costs apart from the forecast production costs of A $25,693,000 was in fact estimated at $9,500,000.
So with opening cash on hand of $1,098,000 plus the Rights Issue raising of $9,155,000 , and 41,680 of Spod sales at the ' Gross Operating Margin of US $190 per tonne . After deducting the estimated $9.5 million , it should then land us on a COH at the end of December of approximately A$12.5 million ( using aud to usd of 67 cents ). This would then be approx A$ 13.5 million if we use the 45,000 of estimated ' perpetual ' and recurrent receipts. So in effect for every A$1 Million of AJM spod receipts , the bottom line effects on COH increase somewhere between A $ 270,000 - A$280,000. The cash balance at 31 December would then be potentially effected by the last remaining offset from the ' pre-payment ' of approx $2.6 million - so in effect reducing the COH to approximately A$10 Million.
So with the Interest as stated above coming in at circa $14 - $15 million , there definitely appears to be a shortfall of around $5 million pending the conclusion of the March QTR whereby we would start the whole above ' estimating ' process again based on the 45,000 tonnes and the approximate $9.5 million of ' Other ' overheads costs which would still only add another approximate A$3 to A$5 million to the COH ' coffers ' by the end of March.
And sadly this amount will obviously still not be enough to cover the Half Yearly Interest payment - hence the reason they are trying to achieve a ' positive ' outcome ......not a ' excellent ' result , or even a favorable or above average result. So the choice of words says a lot of what may be happening behind the scenes IMO......
