Very little concern for noteholders, hard to see an unfavourable outcome for them.
Mine (asset + plant) is worth > debt otherwise they would not have continued to accommodate ajm. Lenders are not charities, they don't reduce interest just because you can't pay it. Interest comes down when someone else is willing to offer a lower rate.
This isn't a corporate or project finance style refinance, it is a heavily leveraged restructuring, squarely in the high yield space
Management and board investment is great as long as they can continue supporting the company and avoid dilution themselves. How deep their pockets are, especially ABs is anyone's guess.
The recap will almost certainly include a capital raising at a substantial discount. Whether this will include a strategic investor (one of the offtakers or someone else) is yet to be seen. Regardless, management and existing shareholders will need to dig deep to support the company.
The decision then becomes a relatively straightforward one, with the restructure, recut npv, large numher of SOI and industry outlook, is it worthwhile investing. A question any new equity investor would be asking.
Aimo
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