To put this suspension into perspective, 4DS has been operating on the ASX as a tech company for almost six years.In this time 4DS has provided many market sensitive “Updates” including:
·significant technical advancements
·joint development agreements
·capital raisings
Yet, this is the first and only time the shares have gone into suspension!
Let that sink in.
Up until the 21 July 2021, the market believed 4DS (and partners) were aiming to commercialise its technology at 40nm node size and near-DRAM speed.
Then we get surprised to find out they are (likely) sub 10nm and faster than DRAM (while still producing the same results for retention and endurance)!! If it wasn’t for the “technical issue” with 2PL, I don’t think we would have received that last update. In fact, it was more than a typical update as it provided a clear synopsis of all the technical work completed with imec to date.
Why would you want to provide a nice, neat summary? To me, it would be aimed at attracting new investors.
Of course, there is always a chance they have hit a large, unexpected technical issue. But from a worst-case scenario perspective, this would mean (for now anyway) that more time and money are required regardless of whether HGST/WDC stay on board. I think it’s fair to assume those with “skill in the art” are across the physics sufficiently to minimise the likelihood and severity of this scenario.
When you consider all the previous announcements, and how none of them necessitated a suspension, it’s hard to get your head around what is about to drop. But you can (likely) eliminate any scenario that closely resembles announcements of the past.
Then you get to the issue that has been frustrating us shareholders: the lack of disclosure. Yes, it’s frustrating “not knowing”, but Formula 1 teams don’t go around telling everyone about their latest technical achievements.4DS has needed to protect any technical advantage and even the quantum of that advantage. Otherwise, competitors have a target to hit and motivation to get there before 4DS tech can become commercialised. After all, loose lips sink ships. It may seem counterintuitive, but the lack of disclosure increases my conviction in this company.
In my opinion, a Technical Update requiring a two-week suspension must have probable material market consequences. For this to happen, it would seem the tech is ready for commercial application.
The question then becomes, how much?
