4DS 1.19% 8.3¢ 4ds memory limited

This is definitely more than just good news vs. bad news. This...

  1. 1,204 Posts.
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    This is definitely more than just good news vs. bad news. This is obviously much more complex.
    The ASX isn't going to allow endless suspensions unless there's a really good reason. That reason has to be a mutual protection of both the company and the shareholders.
    There's no chance the ASX is going to allow the BOD to mitigate losses by suspending trading. I've seen my fair share of troubled companies that go into administration via suspensions, but never along these lines. It's always been a very troubled company that was in obvious financial strife and having exhausted all avenues ended up in very long suspensions before being delisted/dissolved. Even then, it was no secret as to what was going on by admission in the announcements. The hiding of information in these lines isn't a game the ASX is going to let play.
    I'd like the complete doom and gloom go away as it's extremely unlikely IMO.

    This leads us to what I'd call a 95% chance whatever news we have will definitely re-value this stock. I don't think many here will disagree at this point.

    While I still believe my original 5 have value for speculation, I'm going to lean in a lot of a different direction after our 3rd subsequent suspension.
    Kind of like a gambler who changes positions as the pool shrinks and the odds shift. Yeah..

    Scenario 1
    The announcement reads that our tech is absolutely guns and we've achieved close to universal memory and in a few years it can easily be developed into just that. The SP skyrockets on uneducated speculation to obscene amounts and we're quickly way over-bought. This would make it almost impossible for the company to sell as the tech is still years of research and billions of $ to achieve those goals. Now we're deadlocked and a lot of unnecessary company/shareholder suffering has occurred. The ONLY way to prevent this and to give the tech a reasonable value is to get multiple 3rd party appraisals or have offers sitting on the table when the announcement is made, instantly putting a value on the tech. The BOD can't publicly speculate its value, that's a can of worms.

    Scenario 2
    The announcement reads that our tech has some real hurdles to overcome and it will likely require some years of re-engineering to do that.
    The SP drops out to rock bottom sub-cent prices because the shareholders believe it's all a lost cause, all the while, the company could get .30 a share because the educated would know it has real value in the IP and a buyer hasn't been pursued. The only way to prevent this is to have an offer on the table with the announcement, putting a value on the tech. Again, the BOD can't speculate its value.

    What do I think?
    Scenario 1 would be most likely for these reason below.
    1. I'm biased. Let's get real, I'm very biased as I have a shitload of money in this stock. Not gonna lie.
    2. All of the evidence has been pointing to great gains in our tech and tech space. I've acknowledged the growth over the years whilst many have been super-focused on the "cost of doing research" hiccups. Even great news has been disparaged because of simple issues. It's been surreal.
    3. Scenario 1 would greatly affect the company and the shareholders. Scenario 2, just the shareholders and the BOD isn't their mum.. so.. yeah..
    4. It might be easier to to convince the ASX on scenario 1 than scenario 2, as 1 is more objective.

    I'll now gladly change my position on the announcement to firstly being a technical update, with some sort of valuation attached.

    Just me trying to put a bit of logic to the madness, but it's still a Schrödinger's Cat.

 
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