PAA 4.88% 21.5¢ pharmaust limited

Ann: Extension Study Begins, Analysis Suggests Survival Benefit, page-47

  1. 2,252 Posts.
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    Back of the envelope strategy from here ... that I think MT is espousing.

    Target neurodegenerative disorders, everything else drops to lower priority ( including canine and cancer ).

    Lead condition MND/ALS.
    Assume very strong results from MEND, target partner for MND/ALS before entering phase 2/3 study.
    Upfront payment, significant payment on accelerated FDA approval from phase 2/3 Healey platform trial, tiered royalties
    Partner runs 12 - 18 month phase 3. Tiered royalties on sales / % market share.

    Similar to below, highlighted by MT.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5960/5960324-de683fabf0f4e6fe655be7f676b2df6b.jpg
    Total deal USD $1.5B

    Funds from MND License deal used to start Phase 1/2 trials in nominated neurodegenerative disorders.
    - Frontotemporal dementia
    - Alzheimer's Disease
    - Parkinson's Disease
    - Huntington's Disease

    With known safety profile, trials can be accelerated.
    Partners are accepted for each condition as trials progress, as per MND - but against much larger conditions / market sizes..
    Company value rapidly grows as the power of MPL in inducing autophagy in cells and dispensing of unwanted & toxic deposits to allow the neurons to stabilise & repair is demonstrated.

    At any time in the above process, be ready for a BP to step in and say "enough is enough", we will buy the lot - valued against several neurodegenerative conditions.

    The value at this time, if MPL has shown as efficacious against at least 2 conditions above ( Frontotemporal dementia / Alzheimer's Disease ).
    IMHO > USD 10B ... but it's difficult to actually get your head around the possible valuation.

    But, first things first, deliver a jaw dropping top line MEND report in a few weeks time.
    Then hold on for dear life fellow shareholders.

    ALL IMO of course.

 
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