- A successful announcement of offtake agreements for Silumina Anodes TM products( how long have these secret negotiations been ongoing? It's been a fairly drawn out process to date has it not?)
They haven't started negotiating offtake agreements for Silumina Anodes as there are no samples to provide until the pilot plant starts producing.
Once they start supplying samples it will take at least 6 months of testing by the battery company and/or auto manufacturers. If the testing is successful then negotiations can commence. Therefore best case is sometime in 2025, so I'm not holding my breath.
- A successful announcement of offtake agreements for CERENERGY® Grid Packs( hopefully this process will not be as drawn out as the above though we are still waiting on the finished prototypes are we not?)
Yes we are waiting on the prototypes and they are running 3 to 6 months late. This is beyond the company's control and mainly due to supply delays for components. We have to remember there are many bespoke components required. Fraunhofer is driving this. I'm told everyone one involved is working as fast as possible to complete them. Nothing technical has gone wrong. The company is still estimating completion by mid year.
- Successful debt funding from green bond markets and/or from government grants( based on the outcomes from the green debt "furphy" of the original hpa product or lack there of even though at the time it was much hyped as nearly being a forgone conclusion answers this one!)
Financing for the Johor HPA project was a shambles. Spending shareholder funds on construction before debt and partner equity was even likely was reckless IMO. The Capex for the project was just too large.
Only long term holders or ex holders from those years got burnt. Current holders are only here for Cerenergy and Silumina Anodes. Both projects have much lower capexs, are in Germany and target products to well understood and growing markets that even the lay person can appreciate. Government grants for Cerenergy are very likely given the Fraunhofer technology/relationship and our German boots on the ground. Not sure how anyone can argue with that provided the company gets the offtake agreement in place. Green bonds are very good financing option. There are currently 100s of billions of Euro's invested in them supporting green projects. Yes financing is always tough and failure to obtain is the biggest risk.
- Timely achievement of planned milestones( what is timely achievement? Where are the KPIs which list these "timely" expectations in writing with specific dates? Have previous milestones been achieved in a timely fashion? I'd argue not!)
The company has internal project plans that have milestone completion dates. As I wrote above, delays outside of the company's control does impact the dates which is frustrating to management and holders. Another example is the Silumina pilot plant that was originally to have been commissioned in Q3 last year.
A supplier's industrial 3D printing machine that produced the silicon carbide linings for the calciner either broke down and/or produced defective linings. This caused a major delay. My criticism is not that delays occur, but that we are rarely provided with the reasons. They should provide the reasons for a delay and the revised best estimate for completion. Stop using open dated targets such as mid year, next quarter etc. Don't treat holders like we don't have a memory. Keep us informed.
As I stated this is a paid promo research report is it not?
Does anyone really believe that a report that has been funded by the company being researched is really going to dig up the dirt and ask the hard questions?
Yes it is paid for, but as I said 95% is just a cut and paste from announcements and the DFSs.
I agree that the report will never throw it's paying client under the bus, but the analyst is not given any information that is not already in the public domain.
You can't expect an ABC 4 Corners style investigation.
IMO the report is just a concise condensation of the company's Cerenergy project. It targets potential investors who know little or nothing about the project.
Obviously IF your dot points happened I would agree that 16-20c is not unreasonable BUT by the SP performance since the ANN of the current CR the market seems to not believe that those dot points are going to be achieved anytime soon!
The market does what it wants. Maybe investors are worried this rights issues won't raise the $5m and fear a subsequent placement to sophisticated investors at a15% discount to a 30 day VWAP. Maybe others would like it to fail for this reason.
What do you think the market capitalisation of ATC should be?
Did you let the last CR option expire or did you offload them?
Sold some and let others expire.
Are the current options offered the reason you are willing to pay overs to the coy for the current offering?
These options are attractive as their expiry date is 30/4/2026 by which time IMO the company will be very successful or not.
The main reason I have supported the rights issue is because the company I'm invested in needs money to continue its operations.
Short term fluctuations in the share price don't phase me.
What is your investment strategy here, being you have been here for roughly 10 years and seen as I have multiple CRs causing dilution of your holding along with decline in the SP?
My reasons for maintaining and growing my investment in Altech have changed over the past 8 years.
Everyday I ask myself if I was a new investor would I invest in Altech? With the current two projects in play, I see a company with exciting future growth prospects.
Overall I'm still in the red but that is primarily due to buying and the CRs during the HPA years. Since the HPA coating tech came along I've had some success buying throughout 2020 including the 2020 CR @4C and Covid dip. I've also had some success buying and selling up to 10% of our holdings.
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