The longer this suspension goes risks of a bad outcome increase
No confidence a result will be delivered on Friday
No NoM sent out now and its almost a month late - that signifies that financing DD is not going according to plan.
Meanwhile existing debt is being drawn down, metals prices going lower.
If this deal falls over then Cyan will have to stump up another facility to avoid insolvency. This is turning into a night mare scenario for them. So what happens next??
A rights issue is possible but would have to be in the 1 for 3 ballpark to bring in $15-20m but Cyan might have reached their exposure limit. Yes the guys behind it is rich as god but this is just throwing good money after bad. If i was Cyan I would rather lend money on a secured basis than put in equity, at least then they have some protection.
That Cyan is not part of a lending syndicate for this transaction implies that a sourcing a new debt provider is probably part of the motivation for this whole transaction and that does not seem to be working out thus far
Leaves a convertible or an equity raise. No instos locally will back this management team or Patersons would have found them last year and fundamentals have only deteriorated in my view since then especially in metals prices and total failure to reach nameplate production
If this transaction falls over I think the shares could trade in the 7-8c range as the financial predicament becomes more obvious with the cashflow statement due by Apr 30 to reveal all. if so then any equity cap raise will then likely be done at sub 5c
Bergen or Lind are the obvious convertible note players that could look at this kind of opportunity but even a $3-$5m note would only provide 1 to 2 quarters of cash.
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