My review before Xmas. I'd be buying here, except I'm already at a full position.
That was from the 28th October announcement. By that, there are just 8.5 trading days to go until a resource upgrade is due, presuming before Xmas. Except the above statement was replaced, in the latest Quarterly (just two trading days later), by this ...
I'm allowing that we might not see a resource upgrade this year. But I'm not bothered by that. I suspect the next announcement will be a cap raise, but a cap raise that the share price has already adjusted for. And the raise will be followed by the gold resource upgrade and the awaited drilling results, below, in the new year.
I could be wrong, that could all happen before Xmas, but I think likely not.
On top of that we're expecting Mana further exploration intentions.
I would think all of those pending announcements and a future workplan will sell a decent cap raise and keep any new shareholders happy, and also all those who, I presume, sold into the Mana announcement to buy back in my anticipated cap raise. Plus would reward anybody who buys in now.
I think the above explains the current sogginess of the share price and the big sell down into the Mana drilling results liquidity. Anticipation of the Mana results has improved the share price and the price of a cap raise significantly. But the share price has adjusted back from that peak to an expected cap raise discount level, imo.
The Ramelius takeover price for Apollo, elsewhere stated as at $180/oz, looks more like $116/oz, I think, after you allow for Apollo's cash position. The Apollo resource is 1.1Moz @ 1.2g/t ,with a similar tonnage and a bit lesser grade compared to BRB, and in a similar location. So it's comparable. That takeover price would value a 1.7Moz BRB resource - presuming a 300koz resource upgrade - at around $180m, versus our current Market Cap around $103m. Obviously valuation depends on further exploration expectations for both companies, depth and economics of resources, but you can't factor too much in for that and both look nicely prospective for resource growth.
What that confirmed, for me, is there is an immediate BRB valuation upside, for the gold alone, on the in ground/takeover valuation. Plus further upside factoring in Mana. Plus Ularring. Plus further resource development.
Which all suggests to me this a good buy around here, for both value and for timing, given my anticipated cap raise is already priced in. And any cap raise should outline a pretty exciting work program. Plus the awaited drill results and resource upgrade due.
I'm holding, would be buying if my equity allocation rules allowed.
