The smallest A-REIT included in the ASX Property 300 index has a market cap of about $550m. TOT has a market cap of $85m. A pretty fair ambition for TOT to be included in the index.
The first 4 pathways to growth will require cap raises. Cannot see how that could happen.
Mergers with unlisted funds. Unlisted funds would be valued at the underlying asset values so no benefit to TOT apart from size. TOT would be disadvantaged with share price trading at a discount to NTA. TOT shareholders would benefit the most by TOT becoming unlisted. Although the costs to delist can be fierce.
Mergers with listed funds. All parties are probably trading at large discounts to NTA so again no benefit to TOT apart from size.
TOT acquired by an unlisted fund. Makes sense for the unlisted fund as they are buying $1.35 for $1.00 and over time the gap will close. TOT mgt have protected their positions with termination clauses. But management will not give up this cash cow as there is little to do apart from completing the leasing of Cremorne. No leases expire for the next few years.
It's one thing to say TOT needs size, diversity of portfolio and liquidity but how to get there. That is the question! especially with management's history of non performance. Grossed up dividends paid over this time total 82.46c against a loss in share price of 78c
TOT should be able to maintain 3cpu dividend for the next few years plus with falling interest rates the gap to NTA should close somewhat. So from here could be a reasonable return.
Cheers
TOT Price at posting:
39.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)