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Ann: Favourable Ruling in ICC Emergency Arbitration Proceedings, page-356

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DoubledD

4 Posts.

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17/05/23

12:13

Post #: 67819363
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Originally posted by Sjlasx: ↑

Seems quite apparent to me that there are enough people in positions of power derermined to see this project stripped from AVZ.

Yes the way the Dathcom JV was drafted means that disputes need to go through the ICC and not dealt with by common law DRC proceedings. This does not mean that there are no other alternatives for the DRC Government to cancel the tenement allocations and redistribute them. That would put AVZ in a similar situation to Manomin which would see a potentially years long battle through the ICC against the DRC government.

I have seen many people post that if AVZ loses this project then foreign investment is done for the DRC. I doubt this will be true. AVZ itself entered knowing the risks. Others will likely do the same and aside from that, well I should have listened to my own posts the the DRC is bought and paid for by China.

Clearly the litigation funders see that AVZ itself has enough funds to be targeted for the potential deception by AVZ management. I for one, having bought in the qualifying period will be registering for the class action, so at the very least I get updates on that end.

May well be the case that the class action will be resolved before the disputes surrounding the project in Country are resolved.

It feels like there is too much at stake for some very powerful figures - not just financially - and they are quite determined to strip Dathcom of the project and sully the ground to overshadow their own unlawful behaviour.

The only thing AVZ has going for it right now is it's own Chinese backing. I felt it was the wrong move to ruffle feathers when AVZ pivoted towards the road of wanting to export with a focus on Europe.

This project was always claimed by China. Dathcom was originally awarded the tenements to direct it back towards Chinese interests.

Ultimately I think AVZ itself misread the situation and were out of their depth when it came to DRC dynamics. They approached the project in a very naive manner. They gave every outward appearance of wanting to be very independent when vested interests wanted Chinese involvement or control.

My largest concern regarding the tribunal proceedings apart from the length of time it will take - the JV is likely fractured beyond repair and even if the current issues before the ICC are resolved in AVZs favour, I'd expect new challenges to arise in the DRC and subsequently head back to the ICC - is if the manner in which AVZ originally obtained their stake is to be challenged. It was after all a Dathomir responsibility that AVZ undertook and potential itself a breach of the JV agreements. I am aware some of that was covered by an investigation but it may be open to challenge at the ICC at a later date.

I feel like AVZ needs to essentially submit and be clear that all material is destined for China. This would be very reassuring to the vested interests and also AVZ needs to agree to go quiet on the corruption side of things. If AVZ can somehow negotiate with those interests that don't result in very with profile and influential people suffering, there is a chance AVZ can proceed. Right now AVZ has them backed into a corner. They need to provide a face saving out.

Going to be a very long time before this is resolved to the point that a ML is granted. The longer vested interests can delay, the greater the chance of the tenements being stripped from Dathcom due to failure to exploit the asset. This appears to be the game plan. Comminere and Zijin are both well aware that disputes need resolution though the ICC, but are also chosing to use DRC legal challenges to their advantage.

Obviously there are entities lined up to take control and mine the project if that eventuates.

Maybe, just maybe, AVZ ends up with a substantial proportion of the venture as a consolation prize. That may well be the best outcome holders can hope for.

Expand

This is probably the most sensible post that I have read in HC in relation to AVZ. I think we all need to acknowledge how things work in DRC.

A deal needs to be cut between all parties in order for AVZ to have a chance of retaining some interest in this project.

AVZ Price at posting: 78.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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