profitability issues for the likes of qgc and sgl?

I have pretty much decided that coal bed methane (CBM) will be my exposure to the energy sector for at least 2006.

I have a watchlist of asx CBM plays here in Australia (incl QGC, SGL, PUR, SHG), in America (incl PGS, ODY COI, RFE), and in Europe (EPG). I have also added PVE operating in Italy even though it is a conventional gas play because of its exposure to higher European gas prices and a reserves estimate comparable to CBM plays.

I have found references to the following gas sale prices;
Europe US$13 to $18 per 1000cf: America US$6 to $7 per 1000cf; Australia A$2 to $3 per 1000cf. I have also found references to gas production costs in America of US$2.70 to $2.90 per 1000cf (inclusive of acquistion, installation and operating costs).

Within reason I would expect gas production costs to be similar in Europe, America and Australia ... at least say within +/- 25% of the above American costs.

American companies have been exploring and producing CBM gas for a decade now and are probably a good 3 to 5 yrs further down the track from Australia. Two mid sized American companies I looked at with perhaps 450 to 650 PJ of proven reserves are capitalised at US$3B to $3.75B and have net earnings of US$100M to $200M projected to be abt $250M to $400M by 2008.

Based on the above, I have exposure to European and American asx plays but fail to see any profitable future for Australian companies UNLESS they can get a serious upwards revision of the gas sale price.

Have I missed something?

Regards
Poyndexter