"................. a possible "backfill" around about the 18 cent mark ................"
Howdy Lastly, et-al, Really great to see some action in the market. I could not help but draw an analogy (some will say poor, but anyway) with the Syd to Hobart. Everyone knows all year when and where it will all happen but most take very little notice of it throughout the year as they go about their lives. Some of course are always working behind the scenes, playing their role in preparing the boat and crew for the great event. Close to the event the general punters begin to make comment on who is who, what the weather will be, will the big boys dictate events and how the handicap systems should be run. The boats and crew are readied and nerves of the skippers, crews and the big money behind the event begin to tingle - all before the starters gun is even loaded. Even on the day there is a lot of last minute changes made, things forgotten or, overlooked, requiring alternate and unexpected decisions to be made and then finally, they are on the water but certainly not free to race before the starters gun. Some stay at the back and those up the front need to be mindful of not crossing the starters line early for fear of penalty. Suddenly the gun goes off and away they sail, down the harbour and out to sea.and that is where the real fun starts. Not all manage to finish the race as all are at the mercy of the seas throughout the race. Even having managed the rough and tumble thrown at them by the weather, near the end, they enter the river and often most very calm waters with only very light breeze. The race can be won or lost even at this late stage.
So where is the analogy with PAA ?
Well the LTH's are the ones that have been aware of the race each and every day of the year. Only now as we near the start of the race is PAA starting to attract the punters. The reality is, as described previously, by I think NZT, PAA has pretty much been the odd one out in the market, having a MC of considerably less than $100 million at its stage of development, so that at circa $70 million, at best, it fits with the race day pre-start and being one of the newbi small boats pretty much still down the back of the pack, rather than flouting the start line. In that case the excitement and nerves (re SP activity) are well justified but the gun has not yet gone off. The captain and navigator, aboard little sailing ship PAA, know they have room to move up to SP $0.25-30 (MC $100 million) before they even meet their handicap level for the starters gun.
Can PAA win the race outright - well perhaps, but likely not outright as the super yatchs have that advantage in size, speed and money behind them however, win on handicap is a different scenario all together. Light seas and a professional crew in a watertight boat can have advantage no matter the size of the craft.
The starters gun in this analogy is due to go off with the announcement of the trial outcomes, so there is still time for further rises in the SP and this should assist PAA get off to a great start. After that, the navigators job becomes paramount to work with the captain in identifying and getting to the best air to ensure the sails are full.
Personally, as soon as we hear that gun go off and see them sail out to the heads, I'm off to Hobart to sit and wait, in full expectation that little PAA, its captain and crew will sail up that river and dock nice and early to pick up the overall winners handicap prize !
Good luck to all punters large and small !
(20min delay)
