I've got no background in takeover bids, and haven't researched any of them but I've looked at GVHD sales and penetration etcc.
SRaGvHD:
You're looking at up to around 50 million USD profit for children, and 200 - 300 million for Adults, based on 300 children and 1200-1500 adults treated.
so call it 300 million once penetrated to adults per year.
Crohns - I'm not to sure about because the cost benefit has not been proven yet. I don't know how many of the many patients with IBD will pay for, or insurances will pay for a couple hundred thousand dollar treatment. Clearly the very sick would, but not all Crohns patients are in that category, plus it's probably the furthest indication from approval at this point in time. ARDS will be ahead of it as they allready have phase 3 data.
ARDS - This one has a large market opportunity, and there are only severe forms of ARDS ( assuming the company is still focussed on those that would or who are going to be mechanically ventilated and are inflammed - since operation Light speed has not given them anything of any value yet ). That would mean it's likely the treatment has a big mortality benefit as we have already seen, and reduction in time on a ventilator that insurances will pay. These numbers ( excluding COVID related ARDS ), alone are at least 10 X the SRaGvHD
so maybe 12-15,000 ARDS patients per year ..... of the total number of 190,000 cases in the USA per year.
ARDS is 1/4 the dose of GVHD, so around 750 million USD per year to treat 7-8% of cases using the equivalent doses as 3750 GvHD patients.
Call it potentially 1 Billion yearly sales for Remestemcel-L, without anything for Crohns added, and without anything for anything else added ( Sepsis !) If Remestemcel-L works with Sepsis, that alone could be worth far, far, far more than Rexlemestrocel-L and the other indications combined. It's one of the most serious and common causes of death, and one that has devistating long term consequences afterwards if the patients survive. It's based on inflammation, the cells reduce inflammation..... so you never know. Again, it's extremely serious and doctors do not have the " golden treatment" yet, Reme could be it.
So - how do you value all that? Look at the here and now, and ignore the future, or license individual diseases ( which they have been doing so far )
The larger diseases like ARDS or Crohns, or Sepsis would require large bioreactors, and that is more something large pharma could develop. MSB could go through Lonza, but they still need the delivery lines, and market penetration first , and that is where big pharma could significantly shorten the ramp up.
I don't think there is a chance in hell... I would say it's 0% that Si sells GvHD or Reme as a product, or allows a takeover. Licensing on the other hand I think is on the cards, and I do think they will effectively sell Rexlemestrocel for example for the CHF indication to another company, or partner up and profit share because they need to if they want to get into the market and not take another 10 years to do it.
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