15 Jan presentation v. 27 Feb presentationProfitafter tax...

15 Jan presentation v. 27 Feb presentation

• Profitafter tax increased from $4m before taxto $9.3m after tax
• Pipelineincreased from $400m to $510m
• Move to Sydney facility was completed successfully
• 10 morestaff hired

Slide 5and 6 were new, showing increased transparency. I swear I've seen them before,at least slide 6 for sure. Can't find any record of them though.

So letsdive a bit only slide 5:Thetransparency outlines some very important information that I would assume themarket is trading off (new info):

• $350mshortlist
• $174mfinal quote
• $74m"It's a Yes"

Now what's important is to read the final 17 projects and $29m are part of our 100% order book, and this needs to be deducted from the previous steps.
e.g. We've been provided an update that we are awaiting PO processing on $13m ($42m-$29m) over 7 sales. Even with only an 85% probability factored in this is material information.

For clarity i've broken it down

	Stage	$m	%	$m
1	1	$107	10%	$11
2	2	$53	25%	$13
3	3	$132	30%	$40
4	4	$44	40%	$18
5	5	$88	50%	$44
6	6	$44	70%	$31
7	7	$13	85%	$11
8	8	$29	100%	$29
9	Total	$510		$196

Left column = Add them all and you get $510m.

We'veoften struggled with estimated future revenue but this gives us someindication. I've taken their % figures (I wouldn’t rely on this) and work outthe projected revenue for our current pipeline of $196m.(Leftcolumn x. Middle column - add up right column)

Couple notes
- Read the P-Go vs. P-Win commentary on slide 5
- Take this with a chunk of salt
- While we've been in business for a while, Governments change and sentiment changes at short notice. What could be a 70% deal could become 0% at the drop of a hat.

Slide 17 shows 7 high probability major near-term contract wins worth A$200m. Based on the above table I believe this accounts for stage 4 and onwards. To me this feels a bit inconsistent ('high probability' should be 70% +)

In closing, this was quite a substantial update despite it not being a material sales update. After an initial sale at 59c, I've been trading a small amount on the up and down, funnily sold at close so missed out on an extra $2k today. I've been talking to friends and family and they're general question is "Are you gonna sell/when are you going to sell". This is obviously a hard question to answer especially over the last few weeks where the trading has, at least to me, been too speculative. Today's update actually provides transparency and assurance that no, this is reasonable (if not a bit FOMO) and provided the sales materialize relative to their probabilities we are well placed for another stellar year.

So for me, at least for now, it's a hold. Hoping we see more analyst reviews and price target revisions. A notice of new substantial holder will be nice too.