Ann: Fenix to Restart Mining at Shine, page-83

I originally bought in a few years ago for the divy (was 5c), with the intent to hold until somewhere around mid life of IR and then bail as I thought this was going to be a one hit, one mine wonder. Topped up, yet again, earlier this year.

My thoughts are that when the divy dropped to 2c, the management team had already switched gears to paying out just enough to keep the reputation of a profitable company, but were already far more focused on future growth. Just took me another year to understand that, so I do not expect much change in divvy this year. As others have said, I think this may be the next FMG, so I no longer really care about the divvy.

In the webinar, JW gave plenty of hints about what that future growth would be, extension of IR (1~2 years additional), more deals / partnerships for mines with Sinosteel, squeezing more out of TP and possibly taking over mining operations, restructuring Athena and getting a mine going (Athena shares have gone 3.5x since they took over the board), hauling for 3rd parties, at one point JW mentions when they get to 4 to 5 mines (I bet he knows exactly where those mines will be).

Long term constraints to their grand plan include limited capacity of Geraldton port, but clearly Riverdini has not just been built for GV, but it also future proofs other capacity by smoothing the flow to port and making loading ships more efficient. The price of IO is a bit of the elephant in the room, but I can see that taking margin for haulage, as opposed to just end sales margin, and focusing on very high grade IO gives them an advantage over many competitors.

Might top up after the div payout, but think I am in for the long run on this one...