"That Joye correctly predicted an economic occurrence in the...

"That Joye correctly predicted an economic occurrence in the past doesn't guarantee he'll be on the right tram for 2023 and 2024, but he achieved what hardly any other 'talking head' could not, so he's worth reading and listening to,"

Not really, for the simple reason that the world is awash with people who have for many years been calling the property market to get its comeuppance. He happens to have been the one still standing when it finally happened.

But at any given point in time there are literally thousands of very smart-sounding people out there making all sorts of predictions about major economic shifts, such as stock market moves or property market crashes, or fluctuations in exchange rates or commodity prices, and other macroeconomic variables.

But I've yet to come across one that is able to do so on a basis that is sustainably accurate to an acceptable degree.

What I have come across on a great many occasion, though, is people who invest successfully by ignoring what the macroeconomy might do in the future, but instead investing in individual companies on the basis of their assessments of the fundamental value of those companies.

And because I'm not all that smart, all I do is to try to ape doing what I observe to already work, namely focusing on individual companies while spending very little of my limited intellectual capacity trying to second-guess the timing of booms or busts.

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