Even without any market-driven recovery in current FUMAA from...

Even without any market-driven recovery in current FUMAA from the current level of around $7.5bn, I suspect that UNPAT of $4.5m (equivalent to EPS of around 15cps) is easily on the cards for the current (Carona-hobbled) half-year.

Added to the first half UNPAT which was $6.4m (EPS of 20.4cps), it comes to fully year UNPAT of around $11m (fully-year EPS of ~35cps)

At the current share price, even after its strong recovery since its Covid low, it means the stock is still only on a FY2020 P/E multiple (debt-free, remember) of around 13x.

Of course, the FY2020 year is one of two contrasting halves: a record first-half combined with the virus ambush in the second-half.

But even if one doubles the likely current half result, to get an annualised EPS run rate of 30cps, the current market value is capitalising those scorched earth earnings at just 15 times P/E.

Given the financial pedigree of this company, its high ROE characteristics, the pristine state of its balance sheet, its granular and sticky customer base, its track record of wealth creation and the alignment of management with shareholder interests, it should be attract a premium-to-market valuation multiple.

And during normal market conditions, at that.

On pandemic-hit earnings, it should trade at an even greater premium multiple (to account for the fact that the depressed earnings are only temporary).

It's a stock that I think has upside from three quite observable drivers:

1. Recovery in earnings due to recovery in overall markets.
2. Increasing FUMAA through organic inflows and acquisitions (from vendors with pricing expectations that are, presumably, a lot more muted given the current circumstances), and
3. Re-rating of the stock to more realistic valuation multiple.