Michaeljob
I fully support your comment:
"Model wise we’ll be able to make a lot more sense of it once the cores give a seam thickness, gas saturation, gas composition and permeability over a large geographic area."
The economics are very sensitive to recoverable PJ/Sq. KM and well spacing which flow from the above.
IMO the odds are in our favour as, even with aggressive drilling & surface facility budgets it still works with the 2.6 TCF Best (2U) number.
Everybody, don't panic when we get the first core hole result !
" One swallow doesn't make a summer and one core hole doesn't make a bummer".
As the project modeling matures it looks like we will have quite a reasonable margin between our delivered GSA price and the prevailing China market CBM price.
I understand that Our coals are inherently more suitable for CBM extraction than those in Northern China which is in our favour.
Don't want to give too much away but I intercepted a communication from Russian news (In Chinese) saying that a high level overture was made to the Australian Government assuring us that the Chinese would be strong buyers of our LNG into the future when their existing contracts expired.
The point was made however that although our support of the US to date was OK that we would not be looked on favourably if we adopted an aggressive stance towards China in the future.
It was reported that Australia assured the Chinese of a friendly (Trading) posture.
Let's hope that the global trade situation blows over.
As I did my research though, I realised that China has for some time been focusing on the creation of gas supply lines that are independent of sea routes.
In the balance, even though we will have to keep our pencils sharp, the Mongolian Elixir initiative should be welcomed.
Regards
OGP
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