what do you think can be saved on capex with such a scenario?...

what do you think can be saved on capex with such a scenario? brine wells? no. evaporation ponds? logically, these are already designed for the annual production volume, so reducing or shortening the most cost intensive position (~26%) makes no sense. you could work with barriers, yes. reagent and filter plant? this has to be built anyway. cost savings on this point probably just through falling inflation in arg than through the deletion of parts of the plant. infrastructure? possible that savings can be made here. all you achieve by reducing the annual production rate would be an increase in capex/t. with dfs stage 1, gln is at 22,061 usd/t lce. with the reduction in annual production, i see the capex/t lce between 35,000 - 38,000 usd. based on this figure, external financing seems even more unlikely to me than now. but let's go through this:

selling price remains, sustaining capital is reduced to 45,000,000 usd (note - aisc/t will increase), capex is reduced to ~84,000,000 usd (~35,000 usd/t). with a 50/50 debt/cr situation, gln would still need ~30,000,000 usd in your scenario to complete construction (~14,000,000 usd debt, exp. paxback after 5 yrs, annual interest 12%; ~150,000,000 additional shares @ 0,102 usd per share + options).

total revenue pa: ~47,000,000 usd
ebitda pa: 37,000,000 usd
free cash flow pa: ~26,000,000 usd
adjusted npv after tax: ~134,000,000 usd
adjusted irr after tax: 20,49%
adjusted payback: ~ 3yrs

adjusted capex/npv after tax: 63% !

when i calculate the adjusted capex/npx after tax for dfs stage 1 it's 28%.


my assumptions. no financial advice.